Verdict: NEEDS OPTIMIZATION.
Your account is healthy and your tracking works. What changed is how much each ad impression turns into a sale. Your four main ads are about three years old, and the cost of getting a purchase went from under $4 to over $10 while the cost of reaching people moved far less. That points to the ads and the offer people land on, not to your account setup.
Everything below comes from your Meta account data and the numbers you sent me. Profit is covered in Section 7, using the product cost, postage, and order numbers you sent. Nothing here guarantees a result; Meta results depend on your product, price, creative, and budget.
| Area | What I looked at |
|---|---|
| Account health | Business portfolio, ad account status, payment method, domain verification, ad access |
| Performance | Daily campaign, ad set, and ad-level data for 3 years ($191,135 spend, 27,702 Meta-reported purchases) |
| Audience & placements | Age, gender, and placement splits for your best period vs 2026; current ad-set targeting |
| Creative & copy | The live ad previews for your main ads and the sale ads |
| Tracking | Events Manager: pixel, Conversions API, Purchase quality, duplicate checks, Meta's recommendations |
| Your numbers | AOV ($14.01), 627 Shopify orders (Sep 7 - Oct 4), daily orders Oct 3-5 after ads paused, product cost (about $1 per item), postage (about $5.50), repeat rate (7-8%), Etsy volume (about $1,500/mo), price history, shipping change |
| Site context | Public pricing and offer pages only, to understand what people see after clicking |
Not available to me: click-through rate by ad (not in the exports), and the settings of ad sets you deleted years ago. Where this affects a conclusion I say so.
| Period | Spend | Purchases | Cost / purchase | Meta ROAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2023 (launch) | $2,591 | 970 | $2.67 | 4.84 |
| Oct-Dec 2023 | $15,475 | 3,581 | $4.32 | 2.90 |
| Q1 2024 | $9,101 | 2,574 | $3.54 | 3.50 |
| Q2 2024 | $11,379 | 3,139 | $3.63 | 3.81 |
| Q3 2024 | $14,813 | 2,336 | $6.34 | 3.12 |
| Q4 2024 | $22,412 | 3,641 | $6.16 | 2.88 |
| 2025 (avg) | $64.0k | 6,577 | ~$9.73 | ~2.2 |
| Q1-Q2 2026 | $31.1k | 3,187 | ~$9.76 | ~2.1 |
| Q3 2026 | $19,790 | 1,675 | $11.82 | 1.80 |
| Sep 2026 | $6,162 | 450 | $13.69 | 1.50 |
| Oct 1-3, 2026 | $423 | 22 | $19.24 | 1.13 |
ROAS and purchases are Meta-reported with 7-day click, 1-day view, and 1-day engaged-view attribution, which is generous. The value Meta records per purchase (about $21 recently) is higher than your $14.01 AOV, most likely because shipping and tax are included. On merchandise value alone, the same ads return less than the Meta ROAS suggests.
| Check | Result | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Pixel + Conversions API | Both connected to one dataset | Healthy |
| Purchase event quality | 9.1 out of 10 (Meta's match quality score) | Excellent |
| Purchase value sent | Value, item count, and other details present | OK |
| Purchases vs your orders | 706 Purchase events vs 627 Shopify orders (Sep 7 - Oct 4) | About 12% over |
| Server-side AddToCart | Meta flags low Conversions API coverage | Worth fixing |
| Campaign tagging (UTMs) | Empty on the ad checked | Fix |
Your Shopify Facebook & Instagram channel and a second pixel app are both sending events on the same pixel. The most likely reason for the extra 12% is both firing a purchase. If that is so, your true cost per purchase is about 12% higher than Ads Manager shows ($13.69 would be about $15.40). I could not confirm this directly, so treat it as likely rather than proven.
IMMEDIATE 1Set your break-even number before any new spend
What's wrong: At your $14.01 average order, a $13.69 cost per purchase (about $15.40 if duplicate Purchase events are inflating it) is above what each order earns you. Cost per purchase took about 98% of merchandise revenue in Sep 2026.
What to do: Work out contribution per order = average order value minus product cost minus payment fees minus any postage you pay beyond what you charge. That number is your maximum cost per purchase. Use it as the line for deciding whether a campaign stays or goes.
Your number: about $12 per purchase, using your numbers (Section 7). Any campaign that stays above that is losing money on first orders. A target of $9-10 leaves about $2-3 per order.
Why it matters: It gives you one line to judge every campaign against, instead of guessing.
IMMEDIATE 2Replace the four-ad creative set with a test system
What's wrong: About 99% of $191k went through four static, discount-led catalog ads, up to three years old.
What to do: Build a small batch of new creative, one idea per ad: (a) a short vertical video of the product in real use, (b) style-specific ads for your top 4-5 product styles, revisiting your 2024 winners, (c) a reviews or customer-photo ad, (d) a clear "ships in X days, flat shipping over $30" line in the copy. Drop the blanket percent-off headlines.
Expected effect: Gives Meta new things to learn from and tells you which angle earns purchases. It doesn't guarantee a result.
IMMEDIATE 3Raise order size, so each sale is worth more
What's wrong: Most orders are one item at $12.99, so there is little room to pay for ads. The 20-30% off ads lowered the realized order value and performed worst.
What to do: Test bundles or multi-packs (for example a 2-pack or 3-pack at a set price) and a free-shipping threshold set a little above your usual single-item order. Put those offers in the ads. This is a change to the offer, not a site redesign.
Why it matters: A higher average order is the main way to widen the gap between what an ad costs and what you keep. Because an item costs you about $1, a second item in the same order adds roughly $11 of contribution. At two items per order your break-even cost per purchase is about $22 instead of $12 (before any bundle discount).
NEXT 30 DAYS 1Clean up tracking
Keep one pixel app (Shopify's Facebook & Instagram channel, which sends server events) and remove or turn off the second app. Then place one real test order and confirm in Events Manager > Test events that a single Purchase fires. Add UTM parameters to every ad, for example utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign={{campaign.name}}&utm_content={{ad.name}}. Improve server-side AddToCart coverage with the Shopify channel's data-sharing setting set to Maximum.
NEXT 30 DAYS 2Rebuild with fewer moving parts
When you decide to run ads again: one campaign, two ad sets at most, and leave each test alone for 2-3 weeks. Do not launch five ad sets at once or edit a winner. Test with and without a cost cap once new creative is in, since the $9 cap was not the cause of the decline.
NEXT 30 DAYS 3Test your best-looking audience
Give women 18-34 and related interests their own ad set so you can see whether the 2026 results hold. Keep a lookalike of past purchasers as a second test.
WHEN READY 1Plan the Q4 push early
In Q4 2024 and 2025 you spent $22k and $27k at near-normal returns, so seasonal volume exists. Have the new creative approved and the break-even number set before the holiday window, and plan any holiday offer around bundles.
WHEN READY 2Retargeting and Etsy
A small retargeting ad set for visitors and cart abandoners, and a way to tell how much of your Etsy volume follows Meta traffic. Etsy doesn't send purchase data to Meta, so those sales won't appear in Ads Manager.
Short answer: the ads were driving real sales, but at a small loss per order. They were not ineffective. Here is the math from the numbers you sent.
| Per average order | Amount |
|---|---|
| Average order value (excludes shipping and tax) | $14.01 |
| Product cost (about $1 per item, about 1.1 items) | -$1.10 |
| Payment fees (about) | -$0.71 |
| Shipping (you charge about $6.20-6.90 per order; postage is about $5.50 with $7-9 outliers) | about even |
| Contribution per order | about $12.20 |
That makes your break-even cost per purchase about $12. It does not include packaging, your time, or app subscriptions, so your true line is a little lower. Your 7-8% repeat rate adds roughly $0.90 per first order over time.
| Cost per purchase | Profit per first order after ads |
|---|---|
| $9.90 (2025 to mid-2026 average) | +$2.30 |
| $11.82 (Q3 2026) | +$0.40 |
| $13.69 (Sep 2026, as Meta reports it) | -$1.49 |
| $15.40 (Sep 2026 if the extra 12% of Purchase events are duplicates) | -$3.20 |
| Period | Shopify orders per day |
|---|---|
| Sep 7 - Oct 4 (ads on, 627 orders) | about 22 |
| Oct 3 (ads paused part of the day) | 14 |
| Oct 4 | 10 |
| Oct 5 | 10 |
Orders fell about 55% once ads went off, close to the 58% Meta credited the ads with. So the ads were bringing in about 12 orders a day. Over the four weeks you spent about $5,200 for about 347 extra orders, or about $15 per extra order. At roughly $12.20 earned per order, that works out to a loss of about $1,000 across the month, before repeat purchases. Take this as a good estimate, not exact: it is two full days, one on a weekend, and Shop app ads and Collective sales were still coming in.
Based on your Shopify numbers, Meta account data, and the costs you gave me. Nothing here guarantees a result; results depend on your product, price, creative, audience, and budget.
Pick your top 3 priorities from Section 6 and tell me which one to start on. If you'd like help executing the creative and a restart plan, that is a separate project from this audit. Your account is unchanged; nothing was edited, published, or turned on during this review.
This audit is an independent review. Results from any change depend on your product, price, creative, audience, and budget, and Meta makes the final decisions on delivery.